Gromadzenie zasobów

Jeśli Chiny nie produkują aż tyle co wcześniej, to znaczy również, że gromadzą zapasy surowców, w tym również strategicznych dla produkcji komponentów elektronicznych lub zapewniają sobie strategiczny dostęp do nich na przykład w Afryce, a może i w osłabionej Rosji. Własne surowce są słabą stroną Chin, nie mają zbyt dużo zasobów, więc teraz koncentrują się na zabezpieczeniu tego dostępu. Kupują także surowce energetyczne, korzystając na sankcjach nałożonych na Rosję. Całkowity import ropy naftowej do Chin wzrósł w maju o prawie 12 proc.

Przy czym chiński import ropy naftowej z Rosji wzrósł o 55 proc. w porównaniu z rokiem poprzednim, do rekordowego poziomu w maju, wypierając Arabię Saudyjską jako głównego dostawcę, ponieważ rafinerie zarobiły na dyskontowanych dostawach w ramach sankcji nałożonych na Moskwę w związku z jej inwazją na Ukrainę. Również chiński import rosyjskiego skroplonego gazu ziemnego (LNG) wyniósł w maju br. prawie 400 tys. ton, o 56 proc. więcej niż w maju 2021 roku.

Recesja na Zachodzie jako trampolina

Chiny działają na rzecz recesji w zachodnim świecie. Ten świat będzie ją miał, ponieważ nie potrafi zatrzymać gospodarki i wrzucić ją na inny bieg, tak jak to zrobiły Chiny covidowymi kwarantannami i autorytaryzmem. Recesja wynikająca z niedoboru surowców i komponentów – a nie z braku pieniądza na konsumpcję – oznacza, że na zachodzie wszystkiego będzie mało, mimo że będzie w znacznie wyższej cenie. Ale to wcale nie znaczy, że za mało… pod warunkiem rozwoju innych produktów i usług. To jest kwestia również postaw konsumenckich i innowacyjności, nie tylko strategii gospodarczych państw, branż i firm.

Świat zachodu widzi w covidowych lockdownach w Chinach nieszczęście Chińczyków lub objaw ich szaleństwa. Nie potrafi się oderwać od zachodniego stylu myślenia o sukcesie i zysku oraz stereotypowych wyjaśnień tego, jak działa reszta świata.

Chińczycy zaczekają, aż będą mogli zaproponować światu produkty o znacznie większej wartości dodanej i po znacznie wyższej cenie, niewykluczone, że z zapłatą w cyfrowym juanie. Przestaną być fabryką świata, zaczną być pierwszym mocarstwem świata. Chińczycy, nad którymi ubolewamy, że stracili biznesy w lockdownach, na pewno je odbudują i zrobią jeszcze lepsze interesy niż dotąd.


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Iwona D. Bartczak Iwona D. Bartczak  

partner Business Dialog, szefowa Klubu Dyrektorów Finansowych „Dialog”. Artykuł pierwotnie ukazał się w „Made in Poland/Wyprodukowane w Polsce”, serwisie jednego z programów społeczności Business Dialog (www.businessdialog.pl).