Niepewna dostępność

Analitycy Contextu, odnosząc się do europejskiego rynku dystrybucji, zauważają, że w tym roku widoczne są spore wahania sprzedaży w poszczególnych tygodniach, co jest związane z problemami z dostępnością. Odnotowują jednocześnie, że podaż się poprawia. Tym niemniej długi czas dostawy nadal komplikuje prowadzenie biznesu firmom z kanału sprzedaży.

– Wprawdzie na zamówiony sprzęt trzeba nadal dość długo czekać, do około 90 dni, ale w tym roku dostawy są przewidywalne. Urządzenia docierają na czas zgodnie z terminem. W zeszłym roku realizacja zamówień przeciągała się czasem nawet do 6 miesięcy – mówi Mateusz Dębowski.

Są jednak sygnały, że dostępność po początkowej poprawie w styczniu i lutym br., znów zaczęła szwankować, w efekcie rosyjskiej inwazji na Ukrainę. Wojna przerwała prowadzący tamtędy lądowy szlak transportowy z Chin do Europy.

– Łańcuch dostaw został zachwiany. Producenci musieli decydować się na transport lotniczy lub tańszy, ale dłuższy i bardziej oblegany transport morski. Spowodowało to niemal dwumiesięczne opóźnienia. Z naszych obserwacji wynika, że najbardziej brakuje laptopów z niższej półki cenowej oraz AIO. W tym roku odnotowaliśmy spadki sprzedaży w porównaniu z ubiegłym rokiem zarówno laptopów, jak i desktopów – przyznaje Sebastian Osytek, Product Manager w Actionie.

Obserwuje przy tym odwrócenie ubiegłorocznych trendów – droższe maszyny gamingowe nie są już tak popularne, w przeciwieństwie do zyskujących na popularności znacznie tańszych podstawowych konfiguracji biznesowych i konsumenckich.

Niestety, w kwietniu znów zaczęły napływać niepokojące sygnały spowodowane pandemią, tym razem z Szanghaju. Ogłoszone tam blokady grożą spiętrzeniem opóźnień w dostawach sprzętu największych marek PC. Jeden z ważniejszych dostawców podzespołów dla HP, stwierdził na łamach Nikkei Asia, że kluczowe dla producentów pecetów będą maj i czerwiec. Jeśli produkcja nie przyspieszy w II kw. 2022 roku, może to doprowadzić do zaburzenia dostępności sprzętu w grudniu, a więc w okresie świątecznym w Europie i USA z powodu zatłoczenia portów. Gdy oddawaliśmy ten numer do druku, ograniczenia w Chinach z powodu Covid-19 nadal obowiązywały.

Tradycyjny retail do lamusa?

Obecne trendy i sytuacja gospodarcza przyczyniają się do tego, że klienci będą poszukiwać tańszych rozwiązań.

– Obserwujemy coraz wyższe koszty produkcji i transportu, więc ceny będą rosnąć, a nasycenie rynku spowoduje spadek marży. Naszym zdaniem, jeśli producenci nie zaczną stymulować sprzedaży do klientów końcowych, to trend spadkowy może się utrzymać – uważa Sebastian Osytek.

Dostawcy są jednak zdania, że stagnacja nie zagości na naszym rynku PC na dobre. Przewiduje się nadal duży popyt na komputery w biznesie i edukacji. Szef NTT System na 2023 r. przewiduje niewielki wzrost sprzedaży pecetów na naszym rynku, na poziomie około 3–6 proc. Jednak wahania koniunktury nie są tutaj najistotniejsze. Kluczowa jest zarysowująca się trwała zmiana struktury sprzedaży komputerów.

– Jedno jest pewne. Sprzedaż z „półki” przechodzi do e-commerce. To może spowodować, że za jakiś czas retail taki, jakim go widzimy obecnie, nie będzie już potrzebny. Natomiast reseller będzie musiał dodawać do sprzedaży usługę – podsumowuje Tadeusz Kurek.

Zdaniem specjalisty


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Sebastian Antkiewicz, Client Solutions Group Manager, Dell Technologies Sebastian Antkiewicz, Client Solutions Group Manager, Dell Technologies  

Ostatnie dwa lata to ogromny wzrost zapotrzebowania na komputery, głównie notebooki. W Polsce w tym okresie zanotowaliśmy prawie 75-procentowy wzrost sprzedaży notebooków w porównaniu z czasem przed pandemią. Co ciekawe, ilość sprzedawanych desktopów utrzymuje się na poziomie zbliżonym do ubiegłorocznego. Uważam, że sprzedaż pecetów do biznesu i edukacji w Polsce w latach 2022–2023 wciąż będzie bardzo wysoka. Prognozujemy jednak jej niewielkie obniżenie w stosunku do ubiegłego roku. Ceny mają szansę spaść dopiero wraz z umocnieniem złotego. Obecnie poprawa dostępności komponentów jest zauważalna, jednakże niestabilna sytuacja epidemiologiczna, jak i wojna, to dwa czynniki zaburzające globalne łańcuchy dostaw nie tylko komponentów, ale i materiałów bazowych służących do ich produkcji.

  

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Filip Kałas, dyrektor działu zarządzania produktami, Komputronik Filip Kałas, dyrektor działu zarządzania produktami, Komputronik  

Od kilku miesięcy rynek laptopów jest nasycony. Pandemia sprawiła, że bardzo duża liczba osób była niejako zmuszona do zakupu odpowiedniego sprzętu do zdalnej pracy i nauki. Nadal część z nich będzie wymieniać sprzęt na nowszy, bardziej wydajny, często dedykowany pod graczy. Pamiętać należy jednak o świeżo zbudowanej podczas pandemii bazie i zestawić ją z cyklem życia laptopa, który wynosi średnio 5–6 lat. Przewiduję więc, że w najbliższych miesiącach musimy liczyć się z dużo mniejszym popytem. Oczywiście duży wpływ na rynek ma też inflacja i wojna w Ukrainie. To sprawia, że ceny elektroniki będą rosnąć już w drugiej połowie tego roku. Część firm może próbować je neutralizować kosztem swojej marży, ale rynek ma skończoną pojemność i deprecjacja marży go nie powiększy.