W 2020 r. sprzedaż na polskim rynku dystrybucji IT wystrzeliła do poziomów, o których rok wcześniej nikt nawet nie myślał. Zwłaszcza druga połowa roku okazała się czasem boomu. Dość powiedzieć, że w III kw. 2020 r. obroty dystrybutorów w Polsce były wyższe o 34 proc. w porównaniu z analogicznym okresem 2019, a we wrześniu nawet o 40 proc. – jak wynika z danych Contextu. Oczywiście najsilniejsze piętno na sytuacji rynkowej odcisnęła pandemia, która spowodowała bardzo duży popyt na sprzęt związany ze zdalną pracą i nauką, zwłaszcza na notebooki (+61 proc. w III kw. br.), a także na monitory, drukarki, słuchawki, kamerki i urządzenia do domowych sieci. Z nadspodziewanie dobrej koniunktury korzystali zwłaszcza dystrybutorzy broad-line’owi, „błyszczący” pod tym względem na tle całego rynku ICT w Polsce, który według prognoz PMR z października ub.r. zanotuje 4-procentowy spadek obrotów w porównaniu z 2019 r. Nie wszyscy dystrybutorzy cieszyli się jednak ze wzrostu obrotów, gdyż z powodu pandemii doszło do zamrożenia, skasowania albo przesunięcia części bardziej zaawansowanych projektów, co odbiło się negatywnie na rynku VAD. Przykładowo, w segmencie zamówień publicznych środki zostały skierowane na sprzęt mobilny dla szkół, placówek edukacyjnych, uczelni, urzędów gmin i szpitali.

Wzrosty w ub.r. dotyczyły więc głównie produktów wolumenowych, dostarczanych do konsumenckich kanałów sprzedaży (e-tail i retail) oraz do sektora edukacji. Jednocześnie klienci biznesowi w obawie przed niepewnym jutrem inwestowali w tańsze rozwiązania.

– Dostępny sprzęt, głównie ten tańszy i mniej zaawansowany, znikał z magazynów i sklepowych półek w zaskakującym tempie. To spowodowało, że rozwiązania trwalsze, wydajniejsze i droższe nie były głównym obszarem zainteresowania przedsiębiorców – zauważa Marcin Cichecki, dyrektor sprzedaży i członek zarządu Alstor SDS.

Dostępność sprzętu, czyli zmora pustych magazynów

Wybór taniego sprzętu wynikał nie tylko z zaciskania pasa, ale również z braku dostępności niektórych produktów. Ten problem, z różnym nasileniem, nęka zresztą dystrybutorów niemal bez przerwy od początku 2020 r. Najpierw z powodu COVID-19 w Chinach mocno spadła produkcja i ograniczono transport, a gdy już odblokowano fabryki i porty, pojawiła się z kolei nadpodaż niektórych urządzeń. Co gorsza, nikt nie wiedział, co będzie dalej, a prognozy z wiosny mówiły, że duży popyt potrwa góra pół roku, po czym rynek się nasyci. W efekcie, gdy pojawiła się druga fala pandemii i kolejne potężne ssanie z rynku – większe niż na początku roku – nikt nie był na to przygotowany i magazyny zostały szybko wyczyszczone z towaru.

W efekcie w grudniu ub.r. w całej Europie brakowało urządzeń znanych marek w popularnych konfiguracjach, zwłaszcza notebooków, monitorów i telewizorów. I trudno się dziwić, bo jeśli jakaś fabryka była przygotowana na produkcję kilku tysięcy notebooków, to nie mogła nagle wytwarzać 20 tysięcy sztuk. Można się spodziewać, że problemy z dostępnością popularnych urządzeń końcowych nadal będą komplikować ich sprzedaż co najmniej w I kw. 2021 r.

Początek roku dobry, a potem…

Mimo że pandemia wciąż gra główną rolę na rynku IT, dystrybutorzy z optymizmem spoglądają w przyszłość. Przypuszcza się, że wysoki popyt w kanale sprzedaży na produkty wolumenowe, związane z rozproszoną pracą i edukacją, utrzyma się co najmniej w pierwszych miesiącach tego roku, a zdaniem niektórych graczy nawet przez najbliższe lata. Prawdopodobne jest także, że przybędzie projektów pod potrzeby data center, a więc wzrośnie zapotrzebowanie na storage i serwery, co jest związane ze zdalnym działaniem firm i rosnącą masą danych. Ponadto w czasach, gdy część przedsiębiorstw ogranicza inwestycje w infrastrukturę, a jednocześnie oczekuje elastycznego IT w warunkach zmiennego i nieprzewidywalnego rynku, powinny zyskiwać na popularności rozwiązania dostarczane w modelu usługowym, przede wszystkim chmura. Wśród spodziewanych trendów w segmencie VAD przewiduje się także spore zapotrzebowanie na rozwiązania hiperkonwergentne, infrastrukturę brzegu sieci, systemy monitoringu i diagnostyki sieci.

Najpewniej w 2021 r. nadal będzie rosła sprzedaż online, na czym będą korzystać dystrybutorzy zaopatrujący e-tailerów, jak i mniejsze e-sklepy, wyposażeni w sprawną logistykę i udostępniający partnerom narzędzia e-commerce. Na znaczeniu w dystrybucji będzie zyskiwał dropshipping. Przykładowo, w grupie AB w III kw. 2020 r. wzrost obrotów w dropshippingu wyniósł rok do roku aż 67 proc.


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W 2021 roku w dystrybucji IT ma rosnąć popyt na:  

 

  • urządzenia do zdalnej pracy i nauki (laptopy, tablety, monitory, sprzęt do domowych sieci Wi-Fi, słuchawki, kamery),
  • systemy hiperkonwergentne,
  • rozwiązania bezpieczeństwa cyfrowego,
  • systemy monitoringu i diagnostyki sieci,
  • nowe technologie (IoT, AI, 3D),
  • smart home, w tym panele fotowoltaiczne,
  • rozwiązania termowizyjne,
  • ofertę as-a-service.
  

Rzecz jasna, trudno obecnie przewidzieć, co się wydarzy w kolejnych miesiącach, zwłaszcza w II poł. 2020 r. Nie można wykluczyć ryzyka, że z powodu skutków COVID-19 znacznie wzrośnie bezrobocie i liczba bankructw, a wówczas zachodzi obawa, że zarówno konsumenci, jak i przedsiębiorcy zacisną pasa i będą kupować mniej niż w 2020 r.

Nadzieja we wschodzących segmentach

W minionym roku dystrybutorzy IT mocniej zaangażowali się w rozwiązania fotowoltaiczne, spodziewając się, że ten rynek będzie rósł w szybkim tempie w kolejnych latach. Również integratorzy coraz częściej rozwijają swoje portfolio produktów i usług na potrzeby inteligentnego domu, w zakresie sieci, systemów ochrony, automatyki, jak i instalacji elektrycznych oraz poboru i magazynowania energii. Przewiduje się też, że innym rosnącym segmentem, dotąd słabo widocznym w dystrybucji IT, może być termowizja.

Z kolei na rynku zamówień publicznych w 2021 r. strumień środków może zostać skierowany na pomoc branżom najbardziej dotkniętym pandemią, a sprzedaż generalnie raczej nie spadnie.

– Aby nie doszło do zapaści w dobrze prosperujących sektorach, rząd będzie musiał utrzymać inwestycje publiczne na podobnym poziomie jak miało to miejsce w ubiegłym roku. Z uwagi na fakt, że większość instytucji zaopatrzyło się w sprzęt, głównie laptopy, zakupy w 2021 roku będą związane z zaawansowanymi usługami, a co za tym idzie również bardziej wyspecjalizowanym sprzętem, jak stacje robocze i serwery – uważa Tadeusz Kurek, prezes NTT System.

Duża zmiana dla Actionu, ale czy wielka dla rynku?

W grudniu 2020 r. miało miejsce historyczne wydarzenie dla Actionu. Dystrybutor zakończył trwające od sierpnia 2016 r. postępowanie sanacyjne. Jak zapewnia firma z Zamienia, dzięki wdrożonemu planowi restrukturyzacji wychodzi z całego procesu wzmocniona, w pełni wracając do gry na rynku dystrybucji. Liczy na zacieśnienie i nawiązanie współpracy z producentami i innymi partnerami biznesowymi, czy też instytucjami finansowymi, które dotychczas zniechęcał napis „w restrukturyzacji” w nazwie spółki (dystrybutor miał chociażby z tego powodu ścięte limity ubezpieczeń).

Jaki wpływ na rynek będzie miał powrót Actionu? Jak ocenia przedstawiciel jednego z konkurencyjnych dystrybutorów, chcący zachować anonimowość, wyjście tej firmy z sanacji na razie nic nie zmieni na polskim rynku dystrybucji, a jeśli już to nieznacznie.

– Proces odbudowy pozycji Actionu będzie trwał latami i wiele czasu minie, zanim inni dystrybutorzy i ich klienci odczują jakąś różnicę – wieszczy rozmówca CRN Polska.

Należy jeszcze podkreślić, że w 2021 r. na polski rynek wejdzie francuski VAD Exclusive Networks, który sfinalizuje zakup Veracompu (umowę w tej sprawie podpisano we wrześniu br.). W związku z tym krakowska firma na razie nie dzieli się swoimi przewidywaniami na ten rok.

Zdaniem dystrybutora


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Hanna Osetek-Pasquet, Chief Customer Officer, Also Hanna Osetek-Pasquet, Chief Customer Officer, Also  

Według badania McKinsey Global Survey pandemia doprowadziła do przyśpieszenia cyfrowej transformacji aż o trzy do czterech lat, w zależności od sektora i regionu, w którym działa przedsiębiorstwo. Cyfryzacja objęła procesy, komunikację wewnętrzną, interakcję z klientami, dostawcami i innymi interesariuszami umożliwiając pracę zdalną dostosowaną do nowej rzeczywistości. Z perspektywy naszej branży w 2020 r. nastąpił silny wzrost sprzedaży w zakresie niektórych technologii, w tym komputerów przenośnych, akcesoriów i urządzeń peryferyjnych niezbędnych do pracy i nauki zdalnej, rozwiązań do zunifikowanej komunikacji, domowych i małych drukarek biurowych, urządzeń sieciowych oraz rozwiązań z zakresu cyberbezpieczeństwa. Przyspieszenie cyfryzacji wpłynęło również na szybszą adopcję modelu biznesowego as a service, obniżając bariery wejścia, zwłaszcza dla małych i średnich przedsiębiorstw wynikające z przejścia z systemu CAPEX do OPEX. Rok 2021 przyniesie zapewne dalsze zmiany we wszystkich aspektach naszego życia. Wysoki popyt na kategorie produktów do pracy i edukacji zdalnej pozostanie, według prognoz Canalysa, na takim samym poziomie jak w 2020 r. Powinniśmy również zaobserwować dalszy dynamiczny rozwój modelu biznesowego as-a -service, chmury, cyberbezpieczeństwa oraz nowych technologii, w tym IoT, AI, 3D.

  

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_edit_lock is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Jacek Jędraszka, prezes Ingram Micro Jacek Jędraszka, prezes Ingram Micro  

W 2020 r. odnotowaliśmy zmianę poziomu sprzedaży produktów z segmentu volume. Główną lokomotywą wzrostu stały się notebooki dla przedsiębiorstw oraz konsumenckie. Popyt na nie wręcz wyczerpał możliwości produkcyjne. Wzrosło zainteresowanie produktami sieciowymi, takimi jak punkty dostępowe Wi-Fi i inne urządzenia do domowych sieci. Na ich jakość i niezawodność firmy oraz konsumenci zaczęli zwracać większą uwagę niż wcześniej. Swój potencjał ujawnił też rynek technologii termowizyjnych. W 2021 r. nastąpi kontynuacja wzrostu sprzedaży urządzeń przenośnych do pracy i nauki oraz akcesoriów zwiększających komfort pracy zdalnej. Ulepszane będą technologie łączności, wraz ze zwiększeniem ich zasięgu i przepustowości, jak też wszelkie innowacje dotyczące pracy na odległość i wideokonferencji. Rynek termowizji prawdopodobnie wkracza w swój złoty wiek. Firmy będą inwestować w produkty i usługi wpływające na optymalizację procesów i większą efektywność. Rynek zacznie nasycać się produktami wolumenowymi, a jednocześnie, po lekkim opóźnieniu, infrastruktura data center z usługami serwerowymi w końcu zareaguje generując projekty, które wesprą scenariusze „zdalnej gospodarki”.

  

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_edit_lock is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_obrazek_wyrozniajacy is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_author is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_views_count is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_password is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_name is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_mime_type is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$comment_count is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_edit_lock is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_yoast_wpseo_focuskw is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$obrazek_wyrozniajacy is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_obrazek_wyrozniajacy is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_author is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_galeria is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$_yoast_wpseo_primary_category is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_views_count is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_date_gmt is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$comment_status is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$ping_status is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_password is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_name is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$to_ping is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$pinged is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_modified is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

Deprecated: Creation of dynamic property Timber\Post::$post_modified_gmt is deprecated in /home/sarotaq/crn/wp-content/plugins/timber-library/lib/Core.php on line 71

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Sławomir Harazin, wiceprezes Action Sławomir Harazin, wiceprezes Action  

Biorąc pod uwagę potrzeby związane ze zdalną pracą, popyt w 2021 r. powinien nadal być silny, jednak pod warunkiem, że wyraźnie nie pogorszy się sytuacja gospodarcza. To jest niewiadoma, której nie jesteśmy w stanie przewidzieć. Zanosi się natomiast na to, że co najmniej w I kwartale problemy z dostępnością sprzętu utrzymają się, ponieważ dostawcy nie są obecnie w stanie zaspokoić bardzo dużego zapotrzebowania. Nadal będzie bardzo dynamicznie rósł e-commerce, ponieważ handel coraz bardziej przenosi się do sieci. Z naszych doświadczeń wynika, że jest to intratny biznes także dla mniejszych resellerów. Jeśli chodzi o technologie VAD, to spodziewam się większego zapotrzebowania na rozwiązania bezpieczeństwa, jak i związane z zieloną energią, zwłaszcza panele fotowoltaiczne. Dzięki rozmaitym programom ten rynek się rozkręca. Widzimy, że resellerzy i integratorzy coraz częściej budują swój biznes wokół inteligentnego domu. W Action Business Center najpopularniejsze szkolenia dotyczą fotowoltaiki, bezpieczeństwa i produktów związanych z instalacjami elektrycznymi. Co do innych rozwiązań VAD to rośnie zapotrzebowanie na storage, widoczny jest natomiast spadek zainteresowania serwerami. Wydaje się, że mniejsze firmy wolą korzystać z chmury niż utrzymywać własne serwerownie i ten trend będzie się nasilał.

  

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Marcin Cichecki, dyrektor sprzedaży i członek zarządu Alstor SDS Marcin Cichecki, dyrektor sprzedaży i członek zarządu Alstor SDS  

Rynek dystrybucji w 2020 r. nie był łatwy. Pandemia dotknęła nie tylko Europę, ale i cały świat. Co za tym idzie fabryki, nie tylko te w Chinach, były pozamykane. Duża część projektów i przetargów z powodu pandemii została przesunięta lub anulowana. Sprzedaż urządzeń do pracy zdalnej nie zrekompensowała strat w biznesie projektowym. Naszym zdaniem w kolejnych latach zostanie utrzymany trend pracy zdalnej, zatem przeznaczone do niej urządzenia będą cieszyć się popytem. Natomiast jeśli chodzi o systemy dla data center, to zostanie podtrzymany trend budowania chmury hybrydowej. Coraz bardziej popularne będą rozwiązania hiperkonwergentne, infrastruktura edge oraz systemy monitoringu i diagnostyki sieci. Najbardziej prawdopodobny scenariusz dla rynku to dalszy wzrost sprzedaży w dystrybucji IT. Jego źródeł należy szukać w rosnącym poziomie inwestycji krajowych, nowej perspektywie funduszy unijnych oraz w większym rozwoju rozproszonych systemów IT. Co do trendów światowych, to zapewne nastąpi dalsza konsolidacja dystrybucji oraz większe znaczenie instytucji finansowych i prywatnych funduszy w akcjonariacie tych firm.

  

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Tadeusz Kurek, prezes NTT System Tadeusz Kurek, prezes NTT System  

W minionym roku karty rozdawał COVID-19. Pandemia spowodowała gigantyczne nasilenie trendu pracy zdalnej w biznesie oraz zdalnego nauczania. Konsekwencją był duży wzrost zapotrzebowania na komputery. Dodatkowym powodem większego popytu na PC było wprowadzenie przez Intela i AMD nowych procesorów oraz czipsetów graficznych dla graczy i użytkowników oczekujących dużej wydajności. Jestem przekonany, że 2021 r. będzie udany dla całej branży IT. Pandemia z pewnością przyczyni się do utrzymania dużego popytu na sprzęt komputerowy, który utrzyma się co najmniej w pierwszej połowie roku. Równocześnie będziemy też świadkami dalszego „wyścigu zbrojeń” pomiędzy producentami procesorów. W tym roku Intel wprowadzi jednostki jedenastej generacji, zaś AMD z pewnością przygotuje swoją kontrpropozycję. To spowoduje utrzymanie tendencji wymiany sprzętu na nowy. Zagrożeniem jest natomiast odczuwalna na rynku ograniczona dostępność podzespołów. Ta niekorzystna sytuacja na pewno utrzyma się w pierwszych miesiącach 2021 r.