Słabnie popyt na elektronikę
Zmniejsza się zapotrzebowanie na notebooki, smartfony, telewizory. Za to w II kw. br. rynek wchłonie sporo więcej serwerów.

Niedobory w łańcuchu dostaw zmniejszają się, ale wciąż są widoczne.
Rynek elektroniki konsumenckiej odczuje ciężar osłabienia „gospodarki opartej na pracy w domu”, pandemii w Chinach, napięć międzynarodowych i rosnącej inflacji w I poł. 2022 r. – zdaniem TrendForce.
Co słabnie…
W połączeniu z tradycyjnym sezonem mniejszych zakupów, zapotrzebowanie na komputery, telewizory i smartfony znacznie osłabnie.
…a co trzyma się mocniej
Jednak popyt na IoT, rozwiązania do komunikacji i serwery pozostanie silny.
Jednocześnie w łańcuchu dostaw będą zwiększane zapasy w celu ograniczenia ryzyka niedoboru materiałów z powodu problemów z transportem, wywołanych pandemią i wojną na Ukrainie.
Komponenty pokazują spadek popytu na sprzęt
Z perspektywy kluczowych komponentów, biorąc za przykład MLCC, popyt na główne produkty elektroniki użytkowej, takie jak telefony komórkowe, laptopy, tablety i telewizory, znacznie spadł w I kw. 2022 r., co skutkuje wysokimi poziomami zapasów MLCC – twierdzi TrendForce.
Serwery 15 proc. na plusie
Dzięki poprawie dostaw materiałów, przesyłki serwerów znacznie wzrosną w II kw. 2022 r., o 15,8 proc. wobec I kw. 2022 r. (do 3,6 mln szt.) – według prognozy.
Już w I kw. br., gdy dostawy kluczowych materiałów poprawiły się, choć nieznacznie. Ze względu na rosnące zamówienia z hiperskalowych centrów danych, cykl dostaw czipów Netcom, takich jak LAN IC/chip pozostaje na poziomie ok. 40 tygodni – ustalili analitycy.
Sygnalizowany jest natomiast nadmiar zapasów czipów Netcom. Niedobory materiałów ODMS nadal ograniczają produkcję płyt głównych dla niewielkiej liczby klientów, lecz nie wpływa to na ogólne dostawy na rynek.
Smartfony: 40 tygodni czekania na czipy
W tym roku widać natomiast mniejsze zainteresowanie smartfonami, co jest efektem wojny i inflacji (obok niższego sezonowego popytu) – oceniają analitycy. Dzięki temu ograniczyły się jednak problemy z dostępnoscią materiałów w porównaniu z II poł. 2021 r.
Nadal jednak brakuje niektórych komponentów do smartfonów. Większość z tych niedoborów dotyczy modeli ze średniej i niższej półki.
Czas realizacji dostaw SoC 4G i low-end 5G wynosi ok. 30 – 40 tygodni. Od zeszłego roku popyt na modele średniej i niskiej klasy telefonów nie został zaspokojony.
Czas realizacji dla czujników A+G sięga ok. 32-36 tygodni, a OLED DDIC i touch IC 20-22 tygodni.
Na wielkość produkcji smartfonów w II kw. 2022 r. wpłynie korelacja wymienionych czynników z prognozowanym wolumenem produkcji. Ma on wynieść 323 mln szt., czyli o 6 proc. więcej niż w I kw. 2022 r. To jednakże niższa dynamika niż w poprzednich latach.
Odrabianie zaległości w notebookach
Zaległości w łańcuchu dostaw notebooków wciąż się zmniejszają – twierdzi TrendForce i oczekuje, że dostawy przenośnych PC (w tym chromebooków) osiągną około 55,1 mln szt. w II kw. 2022 r., co oznacza niewielki spadek (o 0,7 proc.) wobec I kw. 2021 r.
Jak ustalono, układy scalone typu C, Wi-Fi i PMIC mają obecnie długie czasy realizacji, przy czym dla IC typu C są najdłuższe i wynoszą od 20 do 25 tygodni.
Przewiduje się, że czas realizacji tych trzech rodzajów produktów poprawi się do końca II kw. 2022 r.
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