Sankcje wobec Huawei łagodne dla rynku pamięci
Początkowo wpływ nowego embarga na rynek DRAM i NAND flash będzie niewielki, później może prowadzić do spadku cen - wynika z prognozy.

W krótkim terminie nowe amerykańskie restrykcje wobec Huawei mają ograniczony wpływ na rynek pamięci, ponieważ zarówno producenci DRAM, jak i NAND Flash mogą kontynuować dostawy dla chińskiego koncernu. Jednak w kolejnych kwartałach spodziewana jest większa presja na ceny – uważa DRAMeXchange, dywizja TrendForce.
Departament handlu USA rozszerzył sankcje przeciwko chińskiemu gigantowi. Wszyscy zagraniczni producenci półprzewodników, którzy używają sprzętu lub oprogramowania made in USA, muszą uzyskać specjalne zezwolenie na dostarczanie układów scalonych dla Huawei i jego spółek zależnych. Dostawcy mogą jeszcze do 14 września zrealizować zamówienia Huawei złożone przed 15 maja. Zatrzymanie dostaw zapowiedział tajwański producent TSMC. Natomiast Intel i Micron mają już licencje pozwalające na dostarczanie podzespołów Huawei.
5G ucierpi najbardziej
TrendForce uważa, że ??nowe sankcje będą miały niewielki wpływ na podaż smartfonów, notebooków i serwerów Huawei, ponieważ chiński koncern ma zapasy komponentów. W przyszłości utrudnią natomiast przede wszystkim dostawy produktów związane z budową stacji bazowych 5G i urządzeń sieciowych. Huawei prawdopodobnie odczuje wyraźny wpływ nowych restrykcji po IV kw. 2020 r.
Jednak nawet jeśli dostawcy pamięci nie będą mieli problemów ze sprzedażą do Huawei, nieunikniony będzie wpływ sankcji na dostawy produktów końcowych w przyszłości. Ze względu na Covid-19 TrendForce już obniżył prognozę wzrostu cen DRAM i NAND Flash ASP w 2020 r., a embargo jeszcze zwiększy presję na obniżki.
Co więcej, trzeba liczyć się z większą podażą – Chiny robią coraz szybsze postępy, aby uniezależnić się od dostaw półprzewodników z zewnątrz. Chiński koncern YMTC jest obecnie na bliski rozpoczęcia masowej produkcji 128L 3D NAND, a CXMT wyprodukował już niewielką ilość 19 nm pamięci DDR4.
W I kw. 2020 r. średnia cena DRAM wzrosła o ok. 5 proc., ale sprzedaż na światowym rynku zmniejszyła się o 4,6 proc. wobec IV kw. 2019 r., do 14,8 mld dol. Powodem są głównie problemy z transportem z powodu pandemii. Jednak w II kw. 2020 r. spodziewane jest zwiększenie dostaw o 20 proc., na co będą miały wpływ przełożone zamówienia z pierwszego kwartału.
Prognoza średnich cen DRAM i NAND Flash na 2020 r. (zmiana w proc. kwartał do kwartału)
I kw. 2020 r. | II kw. 2020 r. | III kw. 2020 r. | IV kw. 2020 r. | |
DRAM | niski jednocyfrowy wzrost | wzrost o 10% lub więcej | wzrost 0 do 5% | spadek o 0-5% |
NAND Flash | wzrost 0 do 5% | wzrost o 5-10% | spadek o ok. 5% | spadek o 5-10% |
Źródło: TrendForce
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