Rynek PC nie da rady przeciwnościom. Ale tylko w 2022 r.
Zanosi się na wyraźny spadek dostaw komputerów. Jednak potem nastąpi odbicie - według prognozy.

Duże zapotrzebowanie na komputery utrzyma się w przedsiębiorstwach w br.
Lockdowny, wojna i inflacja pociągną w dół rynek PC w 2022 r. I to mocno – dostawy spadną o 8,2 proc. wobec 2021 r., do 321,2 mln szt. – prognozuje IDC. Na dołek zanosi się także w przypadku tabletów (-6,2 proc., 158 mln szt.).
Niedawne blokady w Chinach dodatkowo pogłębiają problem niedoborów. Wprawdzie spodziewane jest złagodzenie lockdownu, ale zaległości w dostawach sprzętu będą się utrzymywać przez pozostałą część roku.
Firmy nie przestraszą się kryzysu
Jak zauważa analityk, „niepewność pozostaje wysoka”. Większe obawy będą mieli konsumenci, co w br. powstrzyma ich widoczny w minionych latach pęd do zakupów. Spadną też zamówienia w edukacji. Jednak popyt komercyjny powinien pozostać silny.
Co więcej, mimo niezbyt wesołej prognozy na 2022 r. wygląda na to, że dostawy PC utrzymają się znacznie powyżej poziomów sprzed pandemii, ponieważ nadchodzi czas aktualizacji powiększonej ostatnio bazy urządzeń.
Tym samym utrzymujący się silny popyt komercyjny i jak i na rynkach wschodzących nadal będą czynnikami napędzającymi branżę.
Wzrost powróci w 2023 r.
IDC spodziewa się, że tegoroczny dołek jest chwilowy – dostawy powrócą do wzrostów w 2023 r. i później.
Jednak tegoroczny mocny spadek spowoduje ujemną średnią roczną stopę wzrostu w ciągu 5 lat (2021 – 2026) na poziomie -0,6 proc. Większego przeciętnego spadku (-2 proc. rocznie w ciągu 5 lat) można spodziewać się na tabletach, bo pomijając czynniki makroekonomiczne, dodatkowo komputery będą dla nich konkurencją.
Prognoza dostaw PC i tabletów w latach 2022 – 2026


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W magazynach nadal jest za dużo komputerów
Dopiero w II kw. 2023 r. można spodziewać się normalizacji - przewiduje CEO jednego z największych producentów.
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Zarządzanie danymi pociągnie wydatki na infrastrukturę
Są rozwiązania, które zapewnią ponad 50-procentowy wzrost inwestycji.
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