Rynek PC: lepiej niż przypuszczano
Analitycy skorygowali w górę prognozę sprzedaży komputerów w 2016 r.

W całym 2016 r. sprzedaż komputerów będzie o 6,4 proc. niższa w porównaniu z 2015 r. – ocenia IDC. W sierpniu br. zakładano spadek o 7,2 proc. Analitycy nie zmienili natomiast prognozy na 2017 r. – 2,1 proc. na minusie wobec 2016 r. Czyli spadki sprzedaży nie powinny się pogłębiać, ale do 2020 r. klienci będą kupować coraz mniej urządzeń, głównie z powodu słabnącego zainteresowania konsumentów tym sprzętem, co IDC niezmiennie wyjaśnia konkurencją smartfonów i tabletów. Ale klienci B2B powinni zwiększać zamówienia. W 2018 r. sprzedaż komputerów w segmencie biznesowym ma nieznacznie pójść w górę, a w 2019 r. – już o 3,7 proc.
Innym przewidywanym zjawiskiem jest powiększanie oferty małych dekstopów oraz cieńszych i lżejszych laptopów. Udział przenośnych PC w rynku w 2020 r. ma osiągnąć 62,8 proc., a sprzedaż powinna zwiększać się średnio o 0,4 proc. rocznie do 2020 r. Czyli notebooków nie dotknie – zgodnie z prognozą – spadkowy trend w najbliższych latach.
Warto jednak pamiętać, że IDC nie zalicza do rynku komputerów urządzeń 2 w 1 (klasyfikuje je jako tablety), które są rosnącą kategorią.
Dostawy komputerów w latach 2016 -2020 (prognoza) |
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Rodzaj komputera |
Rynki |
Dostawy w 2016 r. (mln szt.) |
Udział w rynku w 2016 r. |
Dostawy w 2020 r. (mln szt.) |
Udział w rynku w 2020 r. |
Średni roczny wzrost w latach 2016 – 2020 |
Desktopy |
Dojrzałe |
39,1 |
15,1% |
30,6 |
12,3% |
-5,9% |
Wschodzące |
64,4 |
25,0% |
62,5 |
25,0% |
-0,7% |
|
Desktopy razem |
103,5 |
40,1% |
93,1 |
37,2% |
-2,6% |
|
Notebooki |
Dojrzałe |
87,0 |
33,7% |
83,5 |
33,4% |
-1,0% |
Wschodzące |
67,7 |
26,2% |
73,4 |
29,4% |
2,0% |
|
Notebooki razem |
154,7 |
59,9% |
156,9 |
62,8% |
0,4% |
|
Wszystkie PC |
Dojrzałe |
126,1 |
48,8% |
114,1 |
45,7% |
-2,5% |
Wschodzące |
132,1 |
51,2% |
135,9 |
54,3% |
0,7% |
|
Wszystkie PC razem |
258,2 |
100,0% |
250,0 |
100,0% |
-0,8% |
|
Źródło: IDC |
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