Rynek ICT zbiednieje o 300 mld dol.
Nowa prognoza dla rynku na 2020 r. i jeszcze większy zjazd. Wszystkie główne segmenty zaliczą spadek. Jest jednak obszar, który będzie prosperował.

Globalne wydatki na ICT spadną o 8 proc. w 2020 r. ze względu na COVID-19 – prognozuje Gartner. Jeszcze w styczniu 2020 r., przed pandemią, zakładano wynik 3,4 proc. na plusie (3,9 bln dol.). Czyli na rynku ICT przez wirusa będzie jakieś 500 mld dol. mniej niż zakładano, a w porównaniu z 2019 r. wyparuje 300 mld dol.
Pomijając usługi telekomunikacyjne, rynek IT skurczy się o 10 proc. (do 2,16 bln dol.).
Z kolei według prognozy IDC z końca kwietnia br. światowe wydatki na ICT stopnieją o 3,4 proc. w 2020 r. (w tym na IT – o 5,1 proc.). W końcu marca br. przewidywano jeszcze 2,7 proc. na minusie.
IT w trybie oszczędzania
Powody dołka: szefowie IT przeszli już na tryb oszczędzania, co oznacza ograniczenie inwestycji. Priorytetowo będą traktowane operacje niezbędne do utrzymania działalności firmy – uważa Gartner.
Przewiduje się, że wszystkie segmenty rynku ICT zaliczą spadek w 2020 r., a największy – urządzenia i systemy centrów danych. Za to chmura urośnie, głównie dzięki potrzebom związanym z pracą zdalną. Wydatki na usługi chmury publicznej zwiększą się o 19 proc. w 2020 r., w tym telefonia oraz konferencje odpowiednio o 8,9 proc. i 24,3 proc.
W tym roku niektóre długoterminowe projekty transformacyjne oparte na chmurze mogą zostać zawieszone. Mimo to ogólne poziomy wydatków na cloud computing, które Gartner prognozował na 2023 r. i 2024 r., zostaną osiągnięte już w 2022 r.
Prognoza wydatków na ICT w 2020 r.
2019 | 2019 | 2020 | 2020 | |
Segment rynku | Wydatki (mld dol.) | Wzrost (%) | Wydatki (mld dol.) | Wzrost (%) |
Systemy centrów danych | 211,633 | 0,7 | 191,122 | -9,7 |
Oprogramowanie dla przedsiębiorstw | 458,133 | 8,8 | 426,255 | -6,9 |
Urządzenia | 698,086 | -2,2 | 589,879 | -15,5 |
Usługi IT | 1031,578 | 3,8 | 952,461 | -7,7 |
Usługi telekomunikacyjne | 1357,432 | -1,6 | 1296,627 | -4,5 |
W sumie | 3756,862 | 1 | 3456,344 | -8 |
Źródło: Gartner, maj 2020
Powolne odrodzenie
Wirus błyskawicznie zainfekował światową ekonomię, ale niektóre branże będą powoli dźwigać się z zapaści. Najbardziej dotknięte sektory, takie jak rozrywka, transport lotniczy i przemysł ciężki, potrzebują ponad 3 lat, aby wrócić do poziomów nakładów na IT z 2019 r. – uważa Gartner. „Poprawa wymaga zmiany sposobu myślenia w większości organizacji. Nie będzie odbicia. Konieczny jest reset i pójście do przodu” – radzi John-David Lovelock, wiceprezes ds. badań w Gartnerze.
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