Portfele zamówień IT będą pęcznieć
Spółki z branży czeka dobry rok, choć dynamika wzrostu nie będzie duża - wynika z przewidywań analityków.

Popyt na systemy ERP będzie barometrem koniunktury polskiego sektora MŚP – zdaniem analityka Haitong Banku.
Przyspieszenie cyfryzacji przedsiębiorstw oraz konieczność dostosowania do nowej rzeczywistości zwiększa popyt na produkty i usługi IT. W 2021 r. można spodziewać się dużego zapotrzebowania, choć w ujęciu rok do roku wzrost raczej nie będzie spektakularny – wynika z prognoz.
„Spodziewam się, że cały czas branża IT będzie powiększała portfel zamówień (…), ale oczywiście z racji wysokiej bazy z 2020 r. oraz faktu, że część inwestycji w 2020 musiała być szybko zrealizowana, można spodziewać się wyhamowania dynamiki” – przewiduje dla PAP Biznes Konrad Księżopolski, główny analityk Haitong Banku.
Jak wyjaśnia, wyhamowanie wobec ub.r. nie będzie to skutkiem ograniczenia popytu na usługi IT, lecz efektem wysokiej bazy.
Dodaje, że warto zwłaszcza zwracać uwagę na popyt na systemy ERP. W jego ocenie będzie on wskaźnikiem sytuacji firm w sektorze MŚP.
Według ostatnich danych IDC w 2019 r. przychody z systemów zarządzania przedsiębiorstwem wzrosły o 13 proc. rok do roku, do blisko 300 mln dol. (ponad 1 mld zł). IDC przewiduje, że w dużo szybszym tempie niż średnia dla rynku powinno zwiększać się zapotrzebowanie na chmurowe ERP-y.
Z kolei według DM BOŚ wzrost w sektorze IT będzie zgodny z dynamiką wzrostu PKB, który w 2021 r. powinien poprawić się o 4 proc. – według prognozy ekonomistów dla PAP Biznes.
W grudniu ub.r. w rekomendacji główny analityk Haitong Banku oceniał, że portfele zamówień spółek z sektora TMT będą nadal rosnąć z uwagi na kontynuację przyspieszonego pandemią trendu cyfryzacji.
Dominik Niszcz, analityk Trigon DM, komentując dla PAP Biznes indeks WIG-Informatyka zauważa, że jest jeszcze potencjał wzrostu mniejszych spółek IT. Dostrzega jednak także ryzyko spadku dynamiki zysków integratorów IT w drugim półroczu 2021 r. W 2020 r. WIG-Informatyka odnotował wzrost o ponad 36 proc.
Oprogramowanie dla przedsiębiorstw w czołówce wzrostów
Gartner w prognozie z listopada ub.r. dla regionu EMEA uważa, że w 2021 r. w największym stopniu będą zwiększać wydatki na oprogramowanie dla przedsiębiorstw (+6,1 proc.) i systemy centrów danych (+4,1 proc.), gdzie za część inwestycji odpowiadają dostawcy usług, w tym chmurowych.
W prognozie dla całego rynku IT regionu EMEA przewiduje się 6,5-procentowy dołek w wydatkach na IT w 2020 r., oraz wzrost o 2,8 proc. r/r w 2021 r. – co oznaczałoby, że tegoroczne odbicie i tak przełoży się na sprzedaż niższą niż w 2019 r.
W ub.r. PMR prognozowało, że rynek ICT w Polsce w 2020 r. odnotuje spadek o 4 proc., z uwagi na przewidywane pogorszenie się sytuacji makroekonomicznej w kraju, a w konsekwencji ograniczenie wydatków przez przedsiębiorstwa.
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