Obniżka prognozy dla smartfonów na 2022 r.
Spowolnienie nie potrwa długo - pocieszają analitycy.

Cena smartfona 5G spadnie z ok. 2,6 tys. zł w 2022 r. do ok. 1,9 tys. zł w 2026 r. – według prognozy.
Po trzech kolejnych kwartałach spadku i rosnących problemach zarówno po stronie podaży, jak i popytu, IDC znacznie obniżył swoją prognozę dla rynku smartfonów na 2022 r.
Przewiduje, że globalnie dostawy smartfonów w 2022 r. zmniejszą się o 3,5 proc. wobec 2021 r. (do 1,31 mld szt.),
Największy spadek dostaw w 2022 r. jest spodziewany w regionie Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej – aż o 22 proc. Do CEE zalicza się jednak Rosja i Ukraina. Spadek na zachodzie Europy ma wynieść jedynie 1 proc.
Poprzednia światowa prognoza zakładała wzrost w 2022 r. o 1,6 proc.
Jednak IDC spodziewa się, że w br. spowolnienie będzie krótkoterminowe i sprzedaż odbije, osiągając średnią stopę wzrostu 1,9 proc. rocznie do 2026 r.
„Zero Covid” zaszkodził najbardziej
Ekspert wymienia szereg problemów nękających rynek: osłabienie popytu, inflację, napięcia geopolityczne i ciągłe ograniczenia łańcucha dostaw.
Jednak największy jest wpływ blokad w Chinach z powodu polityki „zero Covid”. Uderzają one zarówno w popyt (głównie w Chinach), jak i w podaż. W rezultacie wielu producentów ogranicza zamówienia na ten rok, w tym Apple i Samsung.
Apple radzi sobie lepiej
W ocenie eksperta IDC Apple jest marką najmniej dotkniętą problemami, ze względu na większą kontrolę nad swoim łańcuchem dostaw oraz mniejszym wpływem na klientów premium czynników ekonomicznych, takich jak inflacja.
Prognoza zakłada złagodzenie tych problemów do końca br. i wzrost dostaw o 5 proc. r/r w 2023 r.
W II poł. 2022 r. poprawi się dostępność komponentów
„Bieżące problemy z dostawami półprzewodników zmniejszą się w drugiej połowie 2022 r. Podaż 4G SoC była niewielka, ale popyt przesuwa się w kierunku 5G SoC” – twierdzi Phil Solis, dyrektor ds. badań w IDC.
Według niego większym problemem była dostawa komponentów takich jak PMIC, sterowniki wyświetlaczy i układy Wi-Fi. Zwiększa się jednak dostępność półprzewodników, które są wytwarzane w wyższych węzłach procesowych, powstają nowsze wersje układów Wi-Fi. W tym samym czasie spada popyt.
„Łącznie te zmiany podaży i popytu sprawią, że rynek będzie bardziej w równowadze” – twierdzi dyrektor.
Smartfony będą coraz tańsze
Oczekuje się, że dostawy smartfonów 5G wzrosną o 25,5 proc. r/r w 2022 r., stanowiąc 53 proc. nowych dostaw z prawie 700 mln urządzeń i średnią ceną sprzedaży 608 dol. (ok. 2,6 tys. zł).
Prognoza zakłada, że do 2026 r. modele 5G osiągną 78 proc. udziału w światowym wolumenie dostaw, a średnia cena urządzenia spadnie do 440 dol. (ok. 1,9 tys. zł).
Smartfony 4G będą przeciętnie kilka razy tańsze. Ich cena ma wynieść w 2022 r. przeciętnie 170 dol. za szt. (ok. 700 zł), topniejąc do 113 dol. w 2026 r. (ok. 500 zł).
W krótkim okresie nastąpił niewielki wzrost średniej ceny sprzedaży wszystkich urządzeń ze względu na braki i rosnące koszty komponentów i logistyki. Jednak przewiduje się, że w dłuższej perspektywie trend pozostanie spadkowy.
Przeciętna cena smartfona na całym rynku mniejszy się z 402 dol. w 2022 r. (ok. 1,7 tys. zł) do 366 dol. w 2026 r. (ok. 1,55 tys. zł), tj. o ok. 9 proc.

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Europejski rynek smartfonów zanurkował o 16 proc.
„Ogólny klimat w Europie jest nadal ponury" - komentuje analityk.
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Zarządzanie danymi pociągnie wydatki na infrastrukturę
Są rozwiązania, które zapewnią ponad 50-procentowy wzrost inwestycji.
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