Mocno buja na rynku dystrybucji
Rynek rozgrzany przez home office stygnie. W II kwartale zanosi się na spadek sprzedaży. Rośnie pesymizm branży.

Na europejskim rynku dystrybucji sytuacja ostatnio zmienia się jak kalejdoskopie. W połowie kwietnia (16 tydzień roku) sprzedaż zanurkowała do poziomu -10 proc. w ujęciu rok do roku. Potem jednak kolejna fala popytu wyniosła wskaźniki w górę do +4,6 proc. r/r (17 tydzień, 20-26 kwietnia) – według Contextu.
Jednak w kolejnych tygodniach trzeba raczej przygotować się na jazdę w dół niż na kolejne wzloty – w całym II kwartale 2020 r. sprzedaż europejskich dystrybutorów zmniejszy się o -4,1 proc., ponieważ osłabnie popyt zarówno komercyjny, jak i konsumencki – uważają analitycy.
Dla porównania I kw. 2020 r. zakończył się na 4,8-procentowym plusie, do czego przyczyniła się eksplozja popytu w marcu br., gdy zamykano biura firmowe i otwierano domowe.
Największe przewidywane wzrosty sprzedaży w II kw. 2020 r. (r/r w ujęciu wartościowym)
– systemy AV (30 proc.)
– komputery przenośne i stacjonarne (6 proc.)
– oprogramowanie i licencje (6 proc.).
Największe przewidywane spadki sprzedaży w II kw. 2020 r. (r/r w ujęciu wartościowym)
– segment telekomunikacyjny (-30 proc.)
– urządzenia drukujące i materiały eksploatacyjne (-20 proc.)
– wyświetlacze (-14 proc.)
– infrastruktura i bezpieczeństwo (-10 proc.).
Źródło: Context
Dla porównania między 20 a 26 kwietnia największa dynamika sprzedaży w europejskiej dystrybucji cechowała przenośne PC (41 proc. wzrostu przychodów rok do roku), oprogramowanie i licencje (20 proc.), systemy AV (22 proc.), gwarancje i usługi (22 proc.), jak również konsole do gier (56 proc.) i urządzenia w segmencie e-zdrowia (42 proc.).
„Pomijając notebooki i niektóre produkty konsumenckie, wyzwaniem dla kanału sprzedaży pozostaje popyt, a nie podaż" – mówi Adam Simon, globalny dyrektor zarządzający Contextu. Zauważa, że projekty B2B są wstrzymywane, a nastroje konsumentów szybko spadają. Przed miesiącem problemem był krytycznie niski poziom zapasów w dystrybucji.
Są jednak jasne punkty. Komputery i oprogramowanie mobilne wygenerują 7 mld euro przychodów w II kw. br. Zmniejszą się problemy z zaopatrzeniem w komponenty.
Nastroje coraz gorsze
Większość firm z kanału sprzedaży (74 proc.) uważa, że ich biznes nie powróci do poziomu sprzed pandemii do 2021 r. Jeszcze miesiąc wcześniej takiego zdania było tylko 21 proc. ankietowanych przez Context.
Kategorie sprzętu, które osiągnęły największy wzrost przychodów ze sprzedaży (rok do roku) w ciągu 4 tygodni do 26 kwietnia 2020 r., w porównaniu z analogicznym okresem 2019 r. – dane europejskich dystrybutorów
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Resellerzy chwalą dystrybutorów
Partnerzy wysoko cenią to, co robią dla nich dystrybutorzy. Z jednym wyjątkiem.
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Polska w czołówce wzrostów na rynku drukarek
Wartość sprzedaży w dystrybucji zwiększyła się dwucyfowo w końcu II kw. br.
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Polski rynek drukarek wyszedł na plus
Odrodziła się sprzedaż konsumencka. Wyższe okazały się zarówno wolumeny, jak i przychody.