IDC: na rynku komputerów będzie gorzej
IDC wyraźnie obniżyło prognozę sprzedaży komputerów w 2013 r. Według aktualnej oceny zbyt skurczy się o 7,8 proc. w porównaniu z 2012 r.
Poprzednio firma badawcza przewidywała spadek wielkości 1,3 proc., a 2014 r. miał zakończyć się na plusie. Teraz jest innego zdania. Według IDC dostawy komputerów w przyszłym roku zmniejszą się o 1,2 proc. Analitycy mają jednak także dobre wieści – w 2017 r. zbyt na rynku PC będzie wyższy niż w 2013 r.
Do rewizji w dół prognozy na cały 2013 r. skłonił IDC kiepski wynik w I kw. br. – dostawy komputerów na całym świecie zmniejszyły się wówczas o 13,9 proc. (w Polsce – o 14,1 proc.). Zainteresowanie klientów przenosi się na tablety, urządzenia konwertowalne i sprzęt z Windows 8 – wynika z analizy.
Loren Loverde, zajmujący się badaniami rynku komputerowego w IDC, zauważa, że wielu użytkowników na co dzień potrzebuje sprzętu do serfowania w Internecie, poczty elektronicznej czy aktywności na portalach społecznościowych. Do takich celów nie jest koniecznie posiadanie wydajnego urządzenia. Ważniejsze dla klientów są natomiast małe rozmiary, długi czas pracy na baterii i funkcje dotykowe. Zdaniem Loverde użytkownicy nie zrezygnują całkowicie z komputerów, ale będą one rzadziej używane, tylko do zadań wymagających większego nakładu pracy czy mocy obliczeniowej. Do tego jednak często w zupełności wystarczają starsze modele.
Popyt na PC wzrośnie w 2014 r., kiedy to przede wszystkim firmy będą przesiadać się z maszyn wyposażonych w Windows XP na nowszy sprzęt (w kwietniu przyszłego roku Microsoft kończy wsparcie dla systemu XP) – prognozuje IDC. Jak na razie przedsiębiorstwa wymieniają raczej pojedyncze urządzenia, mniej interesują się większymi projektami.
Według IDC zakupy w firmach ogranicza rozpowszechniające się zjawisko BYOD (Bring Your Own Device), czyli korzystanie z prywatnego sprzętu do celów służbowych. Będzie ono w coraz większym stopniu dotyczyć tabletów i komputerów (obecnie – głównie smartfonów). Jedna czwarta pracowników w firmach zatrudniających ponad 10 osób przyznała, że kupiła swój komputer przede wszystkim do pracy – poinformował Bob O’Donnell, Program Vice President, Clients and Displays w IDC. Jego zdaniem oznacza to, że firmy zamówią w tym roku mniej komputerów, niż przewidywano.
Dostawy komputerów w latach 2012-2017 (w mln szt.)
Region |
Rodzaj komputera |
2012 |
2013* |
2017* |
Rynki wschodzące |
Desktopy |
94.9 |
86.6 |
82.1 |
Rynki wschodzące |
Laptopy |
110.4 |
106.9 |
127.5 |
Rynki wschodzące |
Razem |
205.3 |
193.5 |
209.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Rynki dojrzałe |
Desktopy |
53.4 |
47.8 |
41.8 |
Rynki dojrzałe |
Laptopy |
90.6 |
80.6 |
82.0 |
Rynki dojrzałe |
Razem |
143.9 |
128.4 |
123.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Cały świat |
Desktopy |
148.3 |
134.4 |
123.9 |
Cały świat |
Laptopy |
200.9 |
187.4 |
209.5 |
Cały świat |
Razem |
349.2 |
321.9 |
333.4 |
Źródło: IDC Worldwide Quarter PC Tracker, maj 2013 r.
* prognoza
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Ostry spadek na rynku PC. „Zamówienia komercyjne są zagrożone”
Takiego dołka dawno nie było: -18 proc. Do 2023 r. negatywne czynniki nie ustąpią - zdaniem analityków.