Gartner: ten rok będzie lepszy
Według firmy badawczej w 2013 r. światowe wydatki na IT wzrosną o 4,2 proc. Jednak w przypadku sprzętu prognozy nie są tak dobre jak kilka miesięcy temu.

W 2013 r. wydatki na IT sięgną 3,7 bln dol. wobec 3,6 bln dol. w 2012 r. Gartner podniósł prognozę wzrostu w porównaniu z III kw. ub.r., ale za lepszy wynik odpowiadają częściowo przewidywane zmiany kursu dolara. Bez uwzględnienia tego czynnika rok 2013 powinien zakończyć się na 3,9-procentowym plusie, biorąc pod uwagę łączną sprzedaż w takich segmentach jak: sprzęt, oprogramowanie, usługi i rynek telekomunikacyjny.
– Niepewność związana ze światową gospodarką hamuje wzrost, wywołuje pesymistyczne nastroje wśród konsumentów i klientów w firmach – mówi Richard Gordon, wiceprezes zarządzający w firmie Gartner. – Wiele problemów jest jednak bliskich rozwiązania, a kiedy to nastąpi, wydatki na IT będą większe w 2013 r. niż 2012 r.
Jeśli chodzi o sprzęt, Gartner przewiduje sprzedaż na poziomie 666 mld dol. w całym roku, czyli o 6,3 proc. więcej niż w 2012 r. Jednak poprzednio, tj. w III kw. ub.r., optymizm był większy (przewidywano sprzedaż w wysokości 706 mld dol.). Obniżono także długoterminową prognozę dla sprzętu – średni wzrost wartości sprzedaży w latach 2012 – 2016 wyniesie zdaniem firmy badawczej 4,5 proc. (poprzednio 5,1 proc.). Powód: wydatki na komputery i tablety nie będą tak duże, jak wcześniej przypuszczano. Zwłaszcza w przypadku tabletów, mimo rosnącego popytu, konkurencja wymusza spadek cen, co odbije się na obrotach. Poza tym, jak stwierdza Gartner, generalnie wydatki na sprzęt rosną coraz wolniej.
Światowe wydatki na IT (w mld dol.)
|
2012 Wydatki |
2012 Wzrost |
2013 Wydatki |
2013 Wzrost |
2014 Wydatki |
2014 Wzrost |
Sprzęt |
627 |
2.9% |
666 |
6.3% |
694 |
4.2% |
Systemy Data Center |
141 |
2.3% |
147 |
4.5% |
154 |
4.2% |
Oprogramowanie dla firm |
278 |
3.3% |
296 |
6.4% |
316 |
6.8% |
Usługi IT |
881 |
1.8% |
927 |
5.2% |
974 |
5.1% |
Usługi telekomunikacyjne |
1,661 |
-0.1% |
1,701 |
2.4% |
1,742 |
2.4% |
Razem |
3,588 |
1.2% |
3,737 |
4.2% |
3,881 |
3.8% |
Źródło: Gartner, styczeń 2013 r.
Szybciej powinny zwiększać się natomiast wpływy dostawców oprogramowania dla biznesu. Wartość sprzedaży w 2013 r. osiągnie 296 mld dol., tj o 6,4 proc. więcej niż w 2012 r. W 2014 r. wynik powinien poprawić się o kolejne 6.8 proc. Najszybciej zwiększy się zapotrzebowanie na oprogramowanie zabezpieczające, systemy do zarządzania zbiorami danych oraz relacjami z klientami. W przyszłym roku dobry interes będzie można zrobić na narzędziach związanych z big data, programach do zarządzania treścią, narzędziach do integracji.
Gartner przewiduje także wzrost w segmencie usług – o 5,2 proc. w 2013 r. (do 927 mld dol.) oraz systemów data center – o 4,5 proc. (147 mld dol.). Stosunkowo niewielką poprawę wyniku przewidziano dla usług telekomunikacyjnych, które odpowiadają za ponad 40 proc. wartości sprzedaży całej branży (1,66 bln dol. w 2012 r.). W tym i przyszłym roku wzrost ma wynieść 2,4 proc. Zwiększą się jednak wpływy z usług mobilnego przesyłania danych, które do 2016 r. będą stanowić już jedną trzecią rynku usług telekomunikacyjnych (22 proc. w 2012 r.).
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