Dystrybutorom IT w Polsce nadal będzie się dobrze powodzić
Można spodziewać się kontynuacji wysokiej sprzedaży przez dystrybutorów IT. Nie zaszkodzi im nawet koniec pandemii - zdaniem analityka.

Dystrybutorzy jeszcze długo będą korzystać z dobrej koniunktury. Niespecjalnie zaszkodzą im nawet problemy z dostępnością produktów – według analizy.
Wysoki popyt na elektronikę utrzyma się jeszcze długo, a dystrybutorzy IT pozostaną beneficjentami zmian, jakie zaszły w wyniku pandemii – uważa Jakub Viscardi, analityk DM BOŚ, w rozmowie z PAP Biznes. Wskazuje tutaj na AB i Asbis Enterprises.
Praca hybrydowa będzie wymagać więcej sprzętu
Jego zdaniem hybrydowy model pracy upowszechni się, dlatego konsumenci nadal będą uzupełniać wyposażenie domowych biur. Analityk uważa, że dotąd zakupiony sprzęt nie zaspokoił zapotrzebowania na urządzenia potrzebne do zdalnej pracy.
Ponadto coraz popularniejsze będą e-commerce i usługi online – to kolejne czynniki wzrostu (warto też dorzucić do tej listy inwestycje w cyfryzację ze środków publicznych, jakie są planowane w najbliższych latach).
W ocenie eksperta DM BOŚ zwłaszcza AB skorzysta na niedostatecznym jak na razie wyposażeniu polskich domów w elektronikę (co przejawia się m.in. w niższych wydatkach per capita na IT niż na zachodzie Europy czy nawet w Czechach).
W 2020 r. średnie wydatki na IT per capita łącznie dla Polski, Czech i Słowacji wyniosły 148 dol. (w Polsce w 2019 r. było to 107 dol.), a w Europie Zachodniej – do 204 dol. (187 dol. w 2019 r.).
Będą wzrosty, ale nie tak wysokie jak ostatnio
Ekspert w kolejnych kwartałach nie spodziewa się natomiast tak dużych wzrostów sprzedaży jak w I poł. 2021 r. oraz w 2020 r., z uwagi na wysoką bazę. W 2022 r. również nie należy spodziewać się spadków rok do roku. Jego zdaniem wzrost w kolejnych okresach wzrost może być wysoki jednocyfrowy albo niski dwucyfrowy.
Według Contextu w 2020 r. wzrost sprzedaży w dystrybucji IT w Polsce wyniósł 30 proc. wobec 2019 r. i był to rekordowy wynik w Europie. W I kw. 2021 r. wzrost sięgnął aż 38,7 proc. r/r.
„AB nie ma dużych możliwości zwiększenia marż„
„AB twierdzi, że pomimo korzystnego otoczenia, nie do końca jest beneficjentem wyższej rentowności ze względu na relacje z producentami. Wytwórcy gwarantują dostępność produktów i ochronę ceny, ale w zamian spółka nie ma dużych możliwości, by zwiększać marżę” – mówi Jakub Viscardi dla PAP Biznes.
W I kw. 2021 r. grupa AB podniosła marżę zysku brutto do 4,08 proc. z 3,63 proc. w I kw. 2020 r. Asbis Enterprises zwiększył marżę do 6,43 proc. z 5,08 proc.
Dystrybutorom nie przeszkodzą problemy z podażą
Branżę od dawna trapią zakłócenia łańcucha dostaw i kłopoty z dostępnością produktów, jednak zdaniem analityka AB i grupa Asbis nie odczują większych problemów z tym związanych – ze względu na dużą skalę działalności, jak i przewidywanie poprawy po stronie podaży na całym rynku.
Dystrybutorom IT niespecjalnie zaszkodzą także wzrosty kosztów transportu z Chin, ponieważ w przypadku elektroniki nie mają tak dużego znaczenia, jak w dostawach AGD.
Ekspert uważa również, że nie tyle ceny, co dostępność towaru będzie miała większy wpływ na sprzedaż.
AB w ciągu 9 miesięcy roku finansowego, do marca 2021 r., zwiększyło zysk o ponad 90 proc. Wzrost sprzedaży grupy AB w 2020 r. wyniósł natomiast 27 proc. Z kolei Asbis Enterprises globalnie osiągnął 140-proc. wzrostu zysku w 2020 r., do 36,5 mln dol., przy przychodach 2,366 mld dol. (+24 proc.).
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Obniżka wyceny akcji AB
Analitycy nadal rekomendują zakup papierów wrocławskiej grupy.
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Prezes AB: „Rynek w Polsce przyspieszył w drugim kwartale”
Grupa AB zwiększyła sprzedaż o miliard złotych. "Nie widzimy oznak spowolnienia" - zapewnia prezes Andrzej Przybyło.