Comarch: „rozczarowanie”, obniżka rekomendacji
"Rozczarowanie w całej rozciągłości rachunku wyników" - ocenia DM BOŚ ostatni kwartał Comarchu. Obniżył rekomendację dla spółki.

Dom Maklerski Banku Ochrony Środowiska obniżył krótkoterminową rekomendację relatywną dla Comarchu z "neutralnie" do "niedoważaj". Wskazuje na gorsze od oczekiwań wyniki jednej z największych polskich spółek informatycznych. Analitycy spodziewali się spadków w IV kw. ub.r., ale bilans okazał się wyraźnie słabszy, niż przewidywano. Np. zysk netto Comarchu spadł o 31 proc. (r/r), do 35,9 mln zł. To o ponad 12 mln zł mniej, niż średnia z przewidywań analityków (konsensus). EBIDTA stopniała o 43 proc., do 49,3 mln zł – wg konsensusu miało być o ok. 24 mln zł lepiej.
"Oczekiwany wpływ: negatywny" – stwierdza DM BOŚ.
"Spodziewamy się negatywnej reakcji inwestorów i obniżamy krótkoterminową rekomendację relatywną dla walorów Comarchu do niedoważaj (poprzednio neutralnie)" – wyjaśniają analitycy.
Długoterminowa rekomendacja fundamentalna pozostaje jednak bez zmian ("trzymaj"), choć rok 2018 również w ocenie ekspertów nie będzie łatwy dla spółki.
"Uważamy, że bieżące oczekiwania odnośnie wyników finansowych spółki w 2018 roku (nie wyłączając naszych) są obarczone oddolnym ryzykiem, chociaż z drugiej strony wydaje się prawdopodobne, że w br. nastąpi zauważalna poprawa w ujęciu rok-do-roku (w listopadzie 2017 roku zarząd sygnalizował, że wartość portfela zamówień na 2018 rok jest wyższa o prawie 20% r/r), jednocześnie ten znaczący wzrost r/r byłby odnoszony do niższej niż bazy z 2017 roku niż poprzednio zakładano." – komentują analitycy.
Dom Maklerski wylicza słabe wyniki IV kw. 2017 r., które spółka zaprezentowała 1 marca br.
"6% spadek przychodów względem IV kw. 2016 do 350 mln zł (poniżej konsensusu i znacząco poniżej naszej prognozy), który obejmował 8% spadek sprzedaży własnych usług (7% poniżej naszej prognozy), 4% spadek sprzedaży licencji na własne oprogramowanie (zgodnie z naszą prognozą) oraz bardzo niskie przychody – poniżej 10 mln zł – ze sprzedaży oprogramowania i sprzętu obcego (znacząco poniżej naszych oczekiwań)" – stwierdza raport.
"Dostrzegamy dwa powody stojące za gorszymi od oczekiwań wynikami za IV kwartał ub. roku; po pierwsze nieoczekiwane znaczące ujemne saldo pozostałych przychodów i kosztów operacyjnych, które odpowiada z grubsza za połowę rozbieżności między oczekiwaniami a wynikami, a po drugie, niższe od oczekiwań przychody, co tłumaczy pozostałą połowę ww. rozbieżności." – dodaje DM BOŚ.
Zauważa jednak również, że saldo przychodów i kosztów finansowych w wysokości 11,5 mln zł okazało się dodatnie i było umiarkowanie wyższe niż w prognozie, co z nawiązką zrównoważyło – na poziomie
wyniku netto – niekorzystny wpływ strat na różnicach kursowych.
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