Alarmujące dane z MŚP
Załamanie planów inwestycyjnych w sektorze MŚP. Tak słabych nastrojów jeszcze nie było.

Pierwszy w 2019 r. pomiar Barometru EFL wskazuje, że MŚP rozpoczęły nowy rok w jeszcze bardziej minorowych nastrojach niż w końcu ub.r.
Główny indeks po raz pierwszy w historii pomiarów (od początku 2015 r.) osiągnął wartość niższą niż 50 pkt. (49,9 pkt.), co oznacza, że warunki do rozwoju firm w Polsce są obecnie niekorzystne. Punktacja odzwierciedla dane dotyczące 4 sfer: poziomu sprzedaży, planowanych inwestycji w środki trwałe, płynności finansowej i zapotrzebowania na zewnętrzne finansowanie.
Nastroje drobnego biznesu są coraz gorsze. Wartość głównego indeksu Barometru EFL wyniosła w I kw. 2019 r. 49,9 pkt. i była o 1,2 pkt. niższa niż w poprzednim kwartale. W porównaniu z I kw. 2018 r. spadek wynosi 6,9 pkt., a w ciągu 9 miesięcy – 11,3 pkt.
Inwestycje w odwrocie
Można mówić o poważnym załamaniu planów inwestycyjnych w sektorze MŚP – stwierdza raport. Zdecydowanie więcej jest przedsiębiorców, którzy zakładają spadek inwestycji (27,2 proc.) niż planujących wzrost (18,3 proc.). To najniższy wynik od początku badania, czyli od stycznia 2015 r. Jeszcze gorsza wiadomość: od IV kw. 2017 r., gdy poziom optymistów chcących inwestować był rekordowy (41,4 proc.), wskaźnik ten stale spada.
MŚP powstrzymują się z zakupami
Odsetek osób, które spodziewają się większych zamówień w ciągu I kw. br., spadł o 5,3 p.p. (z 28,3 proc. do 23 proc.) w porównaniu do IV kw. ub.r. W porównaniu do sytuacji sprzed roku odsetek optymistów jest aż o 14,6 pkt. proc. niższy.
Szacowany spadek sprzedaży nie pociągnął jednak za sobą ocen dotyczących płynności finansowej w porównaniu do ubiegłego kwartału. Odsetek osób spodziewających się wzrostu płynności finansowej wyniósł 19,2 proc., o 1,4 p.p. więcej niż w poprzednim ujęciu kwartalnym.
Prezes Europejskiego Funduszu Leasingowego, Radosław Kuczyński, jest zaskoczony skalą spadków. W jego ocenie są one związane z otoczeniem gospodarczym. Wskazuje na trudną sytuację na rynku pracy i spowolnienie w niemieckim przemyśle. Dla firm z naszego kraju niemieckie przedsiębiorstwa są najczęściej głównym partnerem handlowym.
Teraz pozostaje czekać na kolejny odczyt. Patrząc na tendencje z poprzednich lat, pomiędzy I a II kw. br. należy się spodziewać poprawy nastrojów – uważa szef EFL. Inny scenariusz i utrzymanie tendencji spadkowej świadczyć będzie o poważnym załamaniu nastrojów – ostrzega.
Barometr EFL jest przygotowywany co kwartał przez Ecorys na zlecenie Europejskiego Funduszu Leasingowego. W badaniu przeprowadzonym 2-8 stycznia 2019 r. wzięła udział reprezentatywna grupa 600 mikro, małych i średnich firm.
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„Widzimy, że przedsiębiorcy przygotowują się na najgorsze”
Dołujące prognozy sprzedażowe MŚP. Tak złych nastrojów nie widziano od 7 lat.
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46 proc. MŚP spodziewa się pogorszenia w ich branży
„Brak światełka w tunelu”. Na skutki wojny nakładają się w Polsce wewnętrzne problemy.
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Tak źle z MŚP nie było od ponad 2 lat
Nastroje w MŚP są coraz gorsze. Firmy wstrzymują inwestycje, zaledwie 14 proc. liczy na większe zamówienia.