Koniec imprezy dla startupów
Inwestorzy venture capital stają się coraz mniej pobłażliwi dla technologicznych startupów i przykręcają kurek z pieniędzmi.

Pod koniec ubiegłego roku spodziewano się spektakularnego debiutu giełdowego startupu Thrasio. Ta amerykańska firma jest jednym z kluczowych graczy wśród tzw. agregatorów e-commerce, których działalność polega na wyszukiwaniu dobrze rokujących sklepów internetowych w celu ich zakupu. Jednak wyceniana w ubiegłym roku na 10 miliardów dolarów firma porzuciła swoje plany związane z giełdą, tłumacząc to problemami z audytem finansowym. W ostatnich tygodniach startup zwolnił 20 proc. pracowników, wstrzymał zakupy i wymienił dyrektora generalnego. Co ciekawe, jeszcze do niedawna agregatory e-commerce należały do pupilków funduszy venture capital. Czym zatem tłumaczyć ten nagły zwrot?
Thrasio w ciągu czterech lat swojej działalności zebrało od inwestorów 2,4 miliarda dolarów (sic!). Oczywiście nie jest to jednostkowy przypadek. Według PitchBook w samym tylko czwartym kwartale ubiegłego roku inwestycje venture capital osiągnęły rekordowy poziom 95 miliardów dolarów. Startupy stały się w ostatnich latach benificjentami niskich stóp procentowych i spadku liczby akcji spółek publicznych. Oba czynniki przyciągnęły inwestorów do kapitału wysokiego ryzyka. Trend ten umocnił się wraz z nadejściem pandemii. Fundusze venture capital zwiększyły wówczas swoje zainteresowanie startupami technologicznymi, ponieważ aplikacje i cyfrowe usługi stały się wyjątkowo gorącymi aktywami.
Jednak od kilku miesięcy mamy do czynienia z odwrotem. Inwestorzy unikają wysokich wycen i domagają się, aby firmy wydawały mniej i poprawiały swoje marże, choć jeszcze do niedawna ważniejszy od rentowności był szybki wzrost przychodów. PitchBook informuje, że skala inwestycji venture capital zmalała o 26 proc. w pierwszych trzech miesiącach tego roku w ujęciu kwartalnym. Natomiast według Carta, począwszy od końca ubiegłego roku do pierwszego kwartału bieżącego roku, wyceny szybko rozwijających się startupów spadły średnio o 42 proc.
Zaciskanie pasa
Presja ze strony funduszy VC skłoniła startupy, które jeszcze kilka miesięcy temu pięły się w górę, do zwalniania pracowników, ograniczania wydatków na marketing, anulowania projektów… Matt Schulman, dyrektor generalny firmy programistycznej Pave, żali się, że inwestorzy analizują marże brutto w sposób, w jaki nie robili tego wcześniej. W odpowiedzi na to menadżer sporządził listę piętnastu potencjalnych sposobów na zmniejszenie wydatków. Jednym z nich było zwiększenie zatrudnienia w tańszych regionach, takich jak Ameryka Łacińska.
W ciągu dekady inwestorzy przeznaczyli 1,3 biliona dolarów na startupy, tworząc rocznie setki firm, które osiągnęły wyceny powyżej miliarda dolarów. Tym samym przyciągały zainteresowanie zagranicznych rządów i czołowych funduszy hedgingowych. W 2021 roku fundusze venture capital zebrały 132 miliardy dolarów na inwestycje w startupy, a więc prawie dwukrotnie więcej niż w 2019 roku i sześciokrotnie więcej niż dziesięć lat temu, kiedy liczba funduszy wynosiła około jednej trzeciej obecnej.
Startupy, które pozyskiwały od inwestorów duże sumy przy wysokich wycenach, znalazły się pod presją rozwoju. W rezultacie szybko zaczęły zwiększać zatrudnienie i dokonywać często niezbyt przemyślanych przejęć, co w większości przypadków doprowadziło do znacznego pogorszenia jakości pracy.
Nie najlepszą passę mają też największe spółki technologiczne, tak przecież świetnie radzące sobie w czasie pandemii. Akcje Meta i Amazona spadły w tym roku o ponad 30 proc., zaś Apple’a, Microsoftu i Alphabetu o około 20 proc. Wyjątkowo trudny czas ma Netflix, ze spadkiem aż o 69 proc. Złe wiadomości napłynęły też między innymi z SoftBanku, który w pierwszym kwartale bieżącego roku stracił na inwestycjach w spółki technologiczne rekordowe 26,2 miliarda dolarów. Trudno się zatem dziwić minorowym nastrojom panującym w Dolinie Krzemowej.
Jednak, jak to zwykle bywa nawet w najczarniejszych czasach, nie wszyscy tracą rezon. „Moim zdaniem nie jest to scenariusz z 2001 ani z 2008 roku. Po prostu słabsze startupy nie otrzymują finansowania, co uważam za zdrowe zjawisko” – podkreśla John Chambers, były dyrektor generalny Cisco Systems, a dziś jeden z inwestorów venture capital. I w zasadzie trudno się z nim nie zgodzić.
Artykuł powstał na podstawie materiałów z The Wall Street Journal.
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