Wpływ wojny na produkcję smartfonów
Analitycy mają wstępną ocenę skutków rosyjskiej inwazji.

Wywołany wojną szok inflacyjny i problemy logistyczne mogą uderzyć w sprzedaż smartfonów w naszym regionie.
„Wstępne oceny wskazują, że trwająca wojna nie będzie miała drastycznego wpływu na produkcję smartfonów w 2022 r.” – twierdzi TrendForce. Jednak inaczej może być po stronie popytu: biuro analityczne nie wyklucza, że wynikające z rosyjskiej inwazji problemy gospodarcze mogą wpłynąć na popyt na smartfony.
Jeśli chodzi o udział Rosji i Ukrainy w rynku smartfonów w 2021 r., to trzy największe marki w tych krajach – Samsung, Xiaomi i Apple – w sumie sprzedały 45 mln szt., co stanowi 3 proc. globalnego wolumenu w ub.r. – twierdzi TrendForce. Analitycy nie podjęli się jednak próby przewidywania, czy i jaka część dostaw przeznaczonych dotychczas do Rosji i na Ukrainę może trafić inne rynki.
Dla porównania sprzedaż smartfonów w Polsce w 2020 r. wyniosła 8,53 mln szt., w tym Xiaomi, Samsung i Apple dostarczyły blisko 5,4 mln szt. – według IDC.
1,38 mld szt. na całym rynku
Zdaniem TrendForce produkcja smartfonów w całym 2022 r. prawdopodobnie wyniesie 1,381 mld szt., co oznacza spadek o 3,6 proc. wobec 2021 r., przy założeniu zmniejszającego się wpływu pandemii.
Czynnikami wzrostu będzie wymiana sprzętu i nowy popyt na rynkach wschodzących.
Skutki wojny: drogi dolar, inflacja, kłopoty z logistyką
Niezależnie od tego, wojna między Rosją a Ukrainą spowodowała wiele problemów, w tym wzrost kursów walut, inflację i problemy logistyczne, które wpływają na sprzedaż smartfonów w Europie Wschodniej – twierdzi TrendForce.
Gartner uprzedza, że niedobory komponentów, przerwy w produkcji i niska dostępność zapasów będą nadal zakłócać globalną sprzedaż smartfonów w br., mimo że brak popularnych modeli w magazynach w 2021 r. przesunęły część popytu na 2022 r.
Samsung powróci na tron
Analitycy zakładają, że w I kw. 2022 r. Samsung ponownie wyjdzie na prowadzenie na światowym rynku smartfonów, wyprzedając Apple’a. Xiaomi znów wskoczy na najniższy stopień podium.

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