Koronawirus tnie wydatki na IT w Europie
Z powodu epidemii wzrost będzie o połowę niższy niż zakładano. A jest też pesymistyczny scenariusz - według IDC.

Wzrost wydatków na ICT w Europie w 2020 r. wyniesie 1,4 proc. – prognozuje IDC. Jeszcze w grudniu ub.r. zakładano bilans 2,8 proc. na plusie. Winnym ostrego hamowania jest koronawirus. Wspomniane tempo wzrostu uznano za najbardziej prawdopodobne, ale jest też pesymistyczny scenariusz – zaledwie +0,2 proc. wobec 2019 r.
Jak zauważa Thomas Meyer, dyrektor generalny IDC w Europie, sytuacja jest zmienna, więc wciąż jest za wcześnie, by ocenić całkowicie wpływ epidemii na rynek. Zaleca liderom IT modyfikację strategii.
"Europejscy dostawcy jak i nabywcy szybko dostosowują się problemów i błyskawicznie zmieniających się warunków rynkowych" – chwali dyrektor. Na pocieszenie można dodać, że spowolnienie nadal nie jest tak duże jak w czasie kryzysu w latach 2007 – 2008.
Sprzęt i usługi ucierpią najbardziej
W najbardziej prawdopodobnym scenariuszu przyjęto, że epidemia zostanie ograniczona w ciągu najbliższych kilku tygodni. Będzie miała wpływ głównie na biznes sprzętowy i usługi IT. Segment związany z urządzeniami cierpi z powodu wywołanego przez Covid-19 spadku produkcji, ale też popytu. Z kolei wydatki na usługi będą mniejsze ze względu na przekładanie projektów i spowolnienie prac w już realizowanych przedsięwzięciach.
Przewiduje się natomiast, że z powodu koronawirusa mniejsze dolegliwości odczują dostawcy oprogramowania i firmy telekomunikacyjne. Choć spadek w segmencie sprzętu uderzy również w software, spodziewane jest zapotrzebowanie na rozwiązania do współpracy i pracy zdalnej.
IDC spodziewa się większego popytu na rozwiązania cyfrowe w takich obszarach jak opieka nad pacjentem, doświadczenie klienta (obywatela, studenta, pracownika).
W kontekście większego zapotrzebowania wymieniono też segmenty takie jak wideokonferencje, "inteligentne dostawy", czatboty i platformy e-learningowe i rozwiązania, które mogą pomóc przedsiębiorstwom przetrwać ciężkie czasy.
Wpływ koronawirusa na wydatki na ICT w Europie – prawdopodobny oraz pesymistyczny scenariusz
Może być gorzej
W pesymistycznym scenariuszu założono dołujący rynek efekt domina, od zmian cen ropy, deprecjację walut i niemożność regulacji zobowiązań przez rządy, poprzez opóźnienia w łańcuchu dostaw i zwolnienia pracowników w sektorze prywatnym i publicznym. Miałoby to znacznie bardziej dramatyczny wpływ na rynek ICT. Inwestycje zmniejszyłyby się we wszystkich segmentach oprócz oprogramowania.
W tym scenariuszu w warunkach ograniczeń w komunikacji zakłócenie łańcucha dostaw staje się powszechne, a popyt spada. Wydatki na IT w produkcji, usługach konsumenckich, transporcie, hotelarstwie zostaną znacznie ograniczone, ponieważ branże te są najbardziej narażone na wpływ Covid-19 w perspektywie krótko i długoterminowej.
Jednocześnie opieka zdrowotna i administracja będą zmuszone przyspieszyć inwestycje. IDC spodziewa się, że przyczyni się to do dodatkowych wydatków IT w sektorze publicznym, zwłaszcza na wdrażanie infrastruktury i narzędzi współpracy. Ale nastąpi to dopiero w II połowie 2020 r. – według przewidywań.
Izolacja nie służy biznesowi
Ograniczone bezpośrednie relacje biznesowe między dostawcami a użytkownikami przyczynią się do cięcia inwestycji w znaczące projekty transformacji cyfrowej – w mniej dojrzałych branżach pod względem digitalizacji. Dotyczy to szczególnie projektów z wykorzystaniem bardziej zaawansowanych technologii – uważa IDC.
Mniejsza możliwość bezpośrednich relacji będzie miała również znaczący wpływ na zakupy konsumentów.
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Zarządzanie danymi pociągnie wydatki na infrastrukturę
Są rozwiązania, które zapewnią ponad 50-procentowy wzrost inwestycji.
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