Huśtawka nastrojów w branżach
Warunki do rozwoju firm w Polsce są obecnie niekorzystne – wynika z danych Barometru EFL. Sprawdzono, które branże tracą chęć do inwestowania, a kto jest skłonny wydawać więcej.

Główny indeks Barometru Europejskiego Funduszu Leasingowego na IV kw. br. wyniósł 49,7 pkt., czyli był o 2,5 pkt. proc. niższy niż w III kw. br. Jest to drugi pomiar w historii, w którym wartość spadła poniżej 50 pkt. (po raz pierwszy w I kw. br.). Oznacza to, że warunki do rozwoju firm w Polsce są obecnie niekorzystne.
Nastroje w poszczególnych branżach są natomiast zróżnicowane i odwrotne do tych z poprzedniego kwartału.
Podczas gdy trzy miesiące temu w budownictwie i produkcji odnotowano poprawę, to teraz widoczny jest spadek.
Odczyt barometru dla budownictwa wyniósł 55,1 pkt. (-2,2 pkt.), a dla produkcji 51,5 pkt. (-5,1 pkt.).
Natomiast lepiej swoją sytuację oceniają firmy transportowe i usługowe (+3,7 pkt. oraz +1,1 pkt.).
Pesymizm dominuje w usługach – odczyt na poziomie 47 pkt. jest najniższym wynikiem dla tej branży od stycznia 2015 r.
Trzy sektory przewidują cięcie inwestycji
Na slaby rezultat barometru wpłynęły przede wszystkim kiepskie prognozy dotyczące inwestycji. Tylko 10 proc. firm transportowych liczy na ich wzrost (w III kw. br. prawie 18 proc.) – to najniższy wynik wśród branż (razem z HoReCa), podczas gdy ich spadku oczekuje blisko 4 na 10 przedsiębiorców. Mniej niż w poprzednim pomiarze jest sprzedażowych optymistów – niecałe 26 proc. spodziewa się wyższych przychodów, podczas gdy w III kw. br. było ich ponad 29 proc.
Prawie 17 proc. firm budowlanych spodziewa się więcej inwestować. To oznacza, że odsetek optymistów jest tu o prawie 12 p.p. niższy niż kwartał wcześniej, co dotyczy także sprzedaży. Na wzrost zamówień liczy 29 proc. respondentów, kwartał wcześniej było to ponad 41 proc.
Wyraźnie mogą zahamować inwestycje przedsiębiorstw produkcyjnych: tylko 22 proc. pytanych firm spodziewa się wzrostu (kwartał wcześniej prawie 36 proc.). Ponadto przedstawiciele branży sygnalizują spadek zamówień: 26 proc. firm spodziewa się więcej sprzedawać, co oznacza spadek o 10 p.p. w porównaniu do III kw. br.
Lepiej powinno być w przedsiębiorstwach transportowych – ponad dwa razy więcej ankietowanych niż w poprzednim kwartale planuje więcej inwestować (18 proc. wobec 8 proc.). Wzrostu zamówień spodziewa się taka sama grupa jak w III kw. (prawie 19 proc.).
Także firmy usługowe deklarują znacznie częściej zwiększenie nakładów niż w III kw. br. (19 proc. w porównaniu do 10,5 proc.).
Podobne aktualności
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„Widzimy, że przedsiębiorcy przygotowują się na najgorsze”
Dołujące prognozy sprzedażowe MŚP. Tak złych nastrojów nie widziano od 7 lat.
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46 proc. MŚP spodziewa się pogorszenia w ich branży
„Brak światełka w tunelu”. Na skutki wojny nakładają się w Polsce wewnętrzne problemy.
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Tak źle z MŚP nie było od ponad 2 lat
Nastroje w MŚP są coraz gorsze. Firmy wstrzymują inwestycje, zaledwie 14 proc. liczy na większe zamówienia.